Sharing transportation devices is a dramatic departure from the cultural norm of each household buying and storing multiple vehicles.

One of the questions I get the most about shared mobility is “Do you think bike share will last?” It’s usually asked with genuine curiosity and concern, even by adults who haven’t been on a saddle since college. People are curious about the future of bike share.

So, I will give you 3 predictions because I know exactly what the future holds. And I will give you 3 reasons why I have no idea what the future holds.

Here’s where I’m a know-it-all.

#1. The subscription model is the future of transportation.

Much like movies on demand, mobility on demand will be a convenient and cost-effective way to release the burden of car ownership.

Imagine if you had to deal with each and every movie studio separately. Dealing with their terms and conditions separately. Imagine some required PayPal, others required Stripe, and others required a minimum rental amount. Thank you, streaming services, for not being like transport, where we have to deal with each production house separately.

You’ll soon use one platform to access airplanes, trains, the local bus, on-demand shuttles, ride-hailing, electric mopeds, bicycles, kick scooters, loaner cars and rental cars. Bike share will play a major role in the transition from personally-owned to fleet vehicles.

#2. Electric bikes will flourish.

Pedal-assist bike share will draw huge numbers of people who would otherwise stay in a car. Planners will ignore the “e-bikes are cheating” opposition and promote electrified bike share because they know it gets more butts on bikes.

Have you ridden an e-bike? Make yourself a calendar appointment to find a bike shop near you that will let you take one for a spin. Your smile will be stretching your cheeks for days.

Break a sweat? Please. You’ll be breaking hearts when people see the joy you’ve found in your new life partner.

#3. Bicycles will outlive all other micromobility options.

I like kick scooters in the sense that I like garlic. Each has its good application, and neither will be ubiquitous.

Bikes, on the other hand, should be welcomed in every urbanized environment for their versatility and ease of use. Bikes are bacon.

Half of the trips Americans make in a car are less than a few miles, and we travel alone most of the time. Those are easy-to-bike trips. Infrastructure plays an important role, but the bicycle is king of micromobility.

Here’s where I’m shrugging and scratching my head.

#1. Walled garden bike share will continue to struggle, and it’s difficult to predict how many “bikes only” systems will survive in the subscription era.

Smart money invests in customer-focused business models, and that means modal choice on one platform, not downloading a dozen new apps.

Very few companies will be able to scale a business that offers scooters, bikes, cars, buses, flying pods, and whatever else is coming.

Customers need choice. Think of a restaurant offering different types and sizes of meals. The veggies and meat come from different sources, and the restaurant puts the options together for you in one spot.

Cities could surprise us by transforming their streets to be safe and comfortable for bicycling. In that case, standalone bike share systems could return.

#2. Humans are not rational decision makers, so drumming up support for active transportation can’t be based on academic research.

Two people can be presented with identical data and draw opposing conclusions.

That’s why every election cycle is spectacle theater. A voter is always stunned when their father-in-law looks at the same data but pulls a different lever behind the curtain.

We overlook the role of emotion and persuasion.

Our irrational behavior means bike share can accelerate or wipe out based on the stories we tell. Will the #openstreets and #safestreets efforts gain momentum with cohesive storylines? That’s hard to predict.

#3. Autonomous vehicle technology will transform the first/last-mile conversation by making transit accessible to sprawled out suburban developments.

Autonomous transit will make shared fleets of bikes attractive in places that aren’t practical yet. Your Facebook cycling friend is wrong about AVs. Self-driving tech is friend, not foe.

The future bus doesn’t have to look like the old bus. In fact, it shouldn’t. The bus could be made up of self-driving modular pods, connecting to each other as they move closer to employment centers and densely populated areas.

The big question is When and all I can say is Soon.

You can download my Bike Share book from Amazon: https://amzn.to/31TbzAs